Foreign Office Cautioned Against Military Action to Topple Zimbabwe's Leader

Newly disclosed papers show that the UK's diplomatic corps advised against British military intervention to remove the former Zimbabwean president, the long-serving leader, in 2004, advising it was not considered a "viable option".

Government Documents Reveal Deliberations on Handling a "Remarkably Robust" Dictator

Policy papers from the then Prime Minister's government indicate officials considered options on how best to deal with the "remarkably robust" 80-year-old leader, who refused to step down as the country fell into violence and economic chaos.

Following the ruling party winning a 2005 election, and a year after the UK joined a US-led coalition to overthrow Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein, No 10 asked the Foreign Office in July 2004 to produce potential options.

Policy of Isolation Deemed Ineffective

Officials agreed that the UK's policy of isolating Mugabe and forging an international agreement for change was not working, having not managed to secure support from influential African states, notably the then South African president, Thabo Mbeki.

Courses considered in the documents included:

• "Attempt to remove Mugabe by force";
• "Implement tougher UK measures" such as freezing assets and closing the UK embassy; or
• "Re-open dialogue", the option advocated by the then outgoing ambassador to Zimbabwe.

"We know from conflicts abroad that changing a government and/or its harmful policies is exceedingly difficult from the outside."

The FCO paper dismissed military action as not a "realistic option," adding that "The only nation for leading such a military operation is the UK. No other country (even the US) would be willing to do so".

Cautionary Notes of Significant Losses and Jurisdictional Barriers

It warned that military involvement would result in heavy casualties and have "considerable implications" for British people in Zimbabwe.

"Barring a major humanitarian and political catastrophe – resulting in massive violence, significant exodus of refugees, and regional instability – we judge that no African state would agree to any attempts to remove Mugabe forcibly."

The document continues: "We also believe that any other international ally (including the US) would sanction or join military intervention. And there would be no legal grounds for doing so, without an approving Security Council Resolution, which we would not get."

Playing the Longer Game Recommended

Blair's foreign policy adviser, Laurie Lee, warned him that Zimbabwe "could become a significant obstacle" to his plan to use the UK's leadership of the G8 to make 2005 "a pivotal year for Africa". The adviser stated that as military action had been discounted, "we probably have to accept that we must play the longer game" and re-open talks with Mugabe.

Blair appeared to agree, noting: "We should work out a way of revealing the lies and malpractice of Mugabe and Zanu-PF up to this election and then subsequently, we could try to re-engage on the basis of a firm agreement."

The departing ambassador, in his final diplomatic dispatch, had recommended cautious renewed contact with Mugabe, though he recognized the Prime Minister "might shudder at the thought given all that Mugabe has uttered and perpetrated".

Robert Mugabe was finally deposed in a 2017 coup, at the age of 93. Earlier assertions that in the early 2000s Blair had tried to pressurise the South African president into joining a armed alliance to depose Mugabe were strongly denied by the former UK premier.