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Well. From one perspective, Australia's long-running bid to organize the UN climate conference next year has concluded unsuccessfully.

It campaigned for over 36 months for the privilege to put on the world's biggest climate summit and green trade fair, which would have attracted tens of thousands of people to the city of Adelaide next fall.

That's not happening. Rather, the summit known as Cop31 is headed to the tourist destination of Antalya, on the Turkish Mediterranean.

Disappointment and Conflicting Signals

The result will be a major let down to numerous individuals who had hoped organizing the environmental gathering could help accelerate the country's shift from being a fossil fuel economy to a renewable energy superpower, and bring international focus to the survival crisis facing Pacific island nations, who would have been joint hosts.

The procedure that led to failure has been an opaque mess. In recent days, there have been doubts that Anthony Albanese and other senior figures really wanted the proposal to succeed. The prime minister's language sent mixed messages at best. This led to stories in the Australian and international media saying the government was walking away.

This contrasted with the message being relayed at the Cop30 talks in the Brazilian city, where the environment minister, the climate minister, had just declared the country was "fully committed to success".

Uncertain support is not a new issue for the hosting proposal. While Bowen championed it, other senior members of the administration have only sometimes appeared to care.

The Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, traditionally responsible for international climate negotiations, has been disengaged and at times outright opposed.

Evidence suggests Albanese has considered UN climate conferences a priority. He has missed one since taking office in 2022. It's uncertain, but some will wonder if more could have been done to secure the hosting rights.

A Different Perspective

That's one interpretation. However, another perspective to consider it.

In the context the Cop30 talks this week in Brazil – and from an international perspective – the decision on this week may, ironically, have been the best result possible.

Bowen set out on that day an novel agreement that he was working on with his Turkish counterpart, the Turkish minister. Turkey would be the Cop president, organizer and effective event manager, and the Australian delegation – Bowen himself – would take on the position as "president of negotiations", managing nearly 200 countries on the stuff that the nations actually attend for – the talks on how to together address the environmental emergency.

There would also be a increased emphasis on the Pacific region, including a lead-up event on an Pacific island.

Grounds for Scepticism

Multiple reasons exist for doubt. Turkey and Australia do not have a strong partnership. Specific aspects of the agreement had not been finalized at the time of writing. The whole thing could fall over before it gets started.

But it could also be a way to salvage something useful from what looked like an impending disaster for the multilateral work on global warming.

Turkey is widely seen in the global community as having been hellbent on causing havoc in the international climate negotiations. The system is supposed to work by consensus. Typically, that means if there are several nations in the competition those with less support either bow out voluntarily, or a deal is privately arranged to persuade them to step aside.

The Turkish bid plainly had weaker endorsement than Australia and Pacific islands to host Cop31. Approximately 24 of the 28 nations responsible for selecting next year's venue had supported the Australian bid.

However, uniquely, Turkey declined to withdraw. The word "disruption" has been thrown around in recent days, and not just by local commentators.

International Dynamics

Turkey's obstinacy can be read as a manifestation of the divided international landscape. With the US absent under the former president, there has been no major power with the heft to confront the oil producers that offered the Turkish government with certain protection.

The Turkish president is seen as aligned with the Russian leader. Several nations feared a summit obstructed from the top if his administration managed the discussions. And the Germans did not want to have to organize an underprepared climate conference at the UN climate headquarters in the German city, which is what would have occurred under UN rules if the deadlock wasn't resolved.

A Creative Solution

A resolution was necessary. The UN system is flawed and often unsettling to watch, but global cooperation has empirically had an impact in the fight against climate change. The Turkey-Australia arrangement is a creative idea that keeps that going when it is most crucial.

Notwithstanding understandable criticism of the federal administration over its contradictory stance for increasing fossil fuel exports, climate activists who attend UN conferences see Bowen as a positive influence in the negotiations. He has been asked to lead discussion groups at multiple summits he has attended.

This is significant. While some have dismissed the role of a "chief negotiator", experts from research centers and veteran observers at climate talks say it is crucial to their success.

"Each effective summit has been determined by a president holding the pen who can listen, forge agreement and achieve an significant result. We saw that in Berlin in 1995, in the Mexican resort in 2010 and the French capital in 2015. We saw the opposite in Copenhagen in 2009," they note. "It's the most important role at the conference except for making sure that delegates are fed."

Unanswered Questions

Multiple unresolved issues. For example, non-governmental organizations plays a vital role at climate conferences. What, if at all, can the federal administration do to stop a restriction on civil society by the host government?

Possibly little. But that doesn't stop this arrangement looking like the best chance available to have a summit that may provide benefits for the Pacific region, the nation and the world. It's worth a try.