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Voting has commenced for general elections in the Netherlands, with current polling data indicating that the far-right leader Geert Wilders and his PVV party may repeat their emerge victorious, though analysts suggest the party is unlikely of being part of the next government.

Polling Trends and Political Landscape

Wilders' party, which in the last election pulled off a surprise top result and formed a multi-party all-conservative coalition that collapsed within a year, is now slightly leading in the polls and is forecast to secure between 24 and 28 MPs in the 150-seat parliament.

Nevertheless, the far-right party's popularity has dipped since the previous election, when it won 37 parliamentary seats. All major parties have stated they will not entering into a coalition with Wilders, who precipitated the collapse of the outgoing coalition in June amid a dispute concerning his radical immigration proposals.

Major Parties and Projections

At the end of a campaign dominated by issues such as migration, healthcare costs, and the nation's acute housing shortage, the left-leaning GL/PvdA coalition, led by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is running a near second, expected to win between 22 and 26 parliamentary seats.

Also performing well is the liberal-progressive D66, predicted to increase its seat count by almost five times to 21-25 seats, while the right-leaning Christian Democrats (CDA) is expected to more than double its number of MPs to between 18 to 22.

Members of the previous government – which included the PVV, VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all forecast to lose seats, with several facing heavy losses.

Voting Process and Political Division

In the proportional Dutch system, gaining just less than one percent of the vote earns a party a seat in parliament. Among the two dozen political groups contesting the election – which include senior-focused parties, for youth, animal rights parties, basic income advocates, and for sport – as many as 16 may gain entry to parliament.

This high degree of division means that no single party is expected to secure a majority, and the Netherlands has been governed by coalitions – often including several groups in the last few administrations – for more than a century.

Government Formation

The PVV leader claimed that "the democratic process would end" in the country if the his party ends up as the largest party yet is excluded from power. However, critics and analysts argue that winning the most seats does not assure a role in the coalition and that any coalition with a parliamentary majority is a democratic outcome.

While the final outcome is hard to predict and coalition talks may require months, analysts suggest that after the most radical administration in its recent history, the next Dutch cabinet is expected to be a broad-based coalition headed by either the moderate left or centrist right.

Voting Process

Polling stations, including those in the Madurodam model village in the capital and the Anne Frank house in the capital city, opened at 7.30am (6:30 GMT) and will conclude at 9pm. A usually accurate post-voting survey is expected soon after closing time.

Once voting concludes, an informateur will test potential governing alliances that could secure enough support in parliament. Prospective coalition members will then negotiate an agreement for the next four years and must face a vote of confidence in the house before assuming power.